The latest forecast
from the Construction Industry Training Board (CITB) expects positive growth
for the sector despite the uncertainty of Brexit.
The annual
Construction Skills Network (CSN) report - a five-year forecast into the
industry’s skills needs - anticipates construction growth of 1.3% across the
UK, down a third of a percent on the previous year.
The forecast is
based on the scenario that the UK agrees an exit deal with the EU, rather than
a ‘No Deal’ situation.
The biggest increase
is expected in public housing, which is pulling ahead as infrastructure slows.
Financial support from Government at both local and national levels is
encouraging a 3.2% growth rate in public housing, up half a percent since last
year’s forecast.
Infrastructure is
set to grow by 1.9%, down from 3.1% predicted in last year’s forecast. The
sector has been heavily affected by Brexit uncertainty and by investors
stalling construction of the Welsh nuclear power plant Wylfa in January.
Commercial
construction is significantly declining due to investors taking a cautious
stance in the face of Brexit. The forecast expects the sector to drop sharply
this year then level out by 2023, with zero growth anticipated overall.
However the housing
repair and maintenance sector appears to be benefitting from a quieter property
market as home owners halt plans to sell up and instead focus on improving
their current properties. By 2023, the sector is expected to have grown by 1.7%.
Despite the wider
economic uncertainty, more construction workers will be needed over the next
five years. An approximate 168,500 construction jobs are to be created in the
UK over the next five years, 10,000 more than in last year’s forecast.
Construction employment is expected to reach 2.79 million in 2023, just 2%
lower than its peak in 2008.
Steve Radley, Policy
Director at CITB, says: "This forecast aptly reflects the uncertainty,
particularly associated with Brexit that we’re seeing across the wider economy.
Currently, concerns around Brexit are weighing on clients and investors, creating
a knock-on effect on contractors and their ability to plan ahead.
"However,
assuming that a deal is agreed, we expect low but positive growth for
construction. Even as infrastructure slows, sectors like public housing
and R&M are strengthening. This will see the number of construction jobs
increase over the next five years, creating growing opportunities for careers
in construction and increasing the importance of tackling the skills pressures
we face.”
