Demand
from prospective house buyers fell in May 2022, a potential side effect
of the rising cost of living and higher interest rates, although house
prices in the short term are expected to rise – this according to the
latest UK Residential Market Survey (May), from the Royal Institution of
Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
Respondents
reported that new buyer enquiries had fallen in May, with a net balance
of -7%, down from much more positive sentiment in April (net balance
+8%). Some respondents put this down to some buyers tightening their
belts as the cost of living begins to have an effect, and May’s result
brings to an end eight consecutive positive results for new buyer
enquiries.
As such, the
volume of agreed sales saw little change, with a flat picture reported.
Sales expectations over the next three months are also predicted to be
flat, (net balance +1%) from a rosier picture in April (net balance
+10%). Looking over the next twelve months, expectations are that sales
are set to decline with a net balance of -24% respondents commenting
that they foresaw sales declining (down from -4% in April).
New instructions
to sell homes were also largely flat during May, and there seems to be
little respite for lack of supply in the future, with respondents citing
the weakest picture since December 2021 for new / requested market
appraisals. This suggests there is little prospect of more homes coming
onto the market in the immediate future.
Given
constrained supply, house prices continue to rise. A net balance of +73%
of contributors reported an increase in house price during May. Broken
down, all parts of the UK continue to see increasing prices, with growth
exceptionally strong in Northern Ireland, Northern England and Wales.
Looking ahead,
twelve-month price expectations did ease at the UK level for a third
successive month. Although a net balance of +42% of survey participants
still envisage house prices being higher in a year’s time, this is down
from +78% in February and is the most moderate reading seen since
January 2021. However, twelve-month price expectations remain positive
across all parts of the UK at this stage.
In the lettings
market, tenant demand continues to rise firmly according to a net
balance of +48% of contributors – the same as in April. At the same
time, landlord instructions continue to decline, with the latest net
balance coming in at -13% following a reading of -16% seen previously.
As a result, rental growth expectations over the next three remain
elevated, returning a net balance of +58% in May.
Simon Rubinsohn, RICS Chief Economist, said: “The increase in the cost of mortgage finance alongside growing concerns about the economic outlook is unsurprisingly having an impact, albeit a relatively modest one at this point, on buyer activity in the sales market.
“Despite this, prices are viewed as likely to remain resilient into 2023. But as is often the case in these circumstances, the pressure is likely to felt more visibly in transaction levels which are seen as likely to slow as the year wears on.”
“Meanwhile, what is particularly striking in the latest RICS survey is both the current and anticipated strength in the rental market. New instructions of property to let continue to fall according to respondents to the survey while demand is still very strong leading to rental levels being bid higher and greater challenges for tenants who aren’t in the position to compete for the available stock.”
