Following last year’s High Court ruling, the UK Government has published the Carbon Budget Delivery Plan (CBDP), providing much greater transparency on its Net Zero plans.

However, despite over 3,000 pages of new detail, the Climate Change Committee’s confidence in the UK meeting its goals from 2030 onwards is now markedly less than it was in our previous assessment a year ago. A key opportunity to push a faster pace of progress has been missed.

UK greenhouse gas emissions have so far fallen 46% from 1990 levels. At COP26, a stretching 2030 commitment was made to reduce them by 68%. In only seven years, the recent rate of annual emissions reduction outside the electricity supply sector must therefore quadruple.

Time is now very short to achieve this change of pace. Glimmers of the Net Zero transition can be seen in growing sales of new electric cars and the continued deployment of renewable capacity, but the scale up of action overall is worryingly slow.

The Government continues to place their reliance on technological solutions that have not been deployed at scale, in preference to more straightforward encouragement of people to reduce high-carbon activities. The Committee has again flagged the risks of a policy programme that amongst other things is too slow to plant trees and roll-out heat pumps.

Lord Deben, Chairman of the Climate Change Committee, said: “The lesson of my ten years at the Climate Change Committee is that early action benefits the people of this country and helps us to meet the challenges of the coming decades more cheaply and more easily. Yet, even in these times of extraordinary fossil fuel prices, Government has been too slow to embrace cleaner, cheaper alternatives and too keen to support new production of coal, oil and gas. There is a worrying hesitancy by Ministers to lead the country to the next stage of Net Zero commitments.

“I urge the Government to regroup on Net Zero and commit to bolder delivery. This is a period when pace must be prioritised over perfection.”

In a crucial period for delivering progress, key departments did not deliver on recommendations made by the Committee last year. The remit of the new Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has brought welcome focus to the programme, but progress has not been made on seven of the priority recommendations to BEIS in last year’s progress report (see notes to editors). Defra and DLUHC failed to achieve any of the priority recommendations made by the Committee in 2022.

• The UK has sent confusing signals on its climate priorities to the global community. Support for new oil and gas, beyond the immediate increase in gas production demanded by the Ukraine invasion, and the decision to consent a new coal mine in Cumbria have raised global attention and undermined the careful language negotiated by the UK COP26 Presidency in the Glasgow Climate Pact.
• Support is lacking for decarbonised industry in a new era of global competition. Government has high ambitions for decarbonised steel production but has no clear policy to deliver it. Wider incentives are still needed for electrification of industry. The recent announcement of up to £20 billion funding for carbon capture and storage is welcome, but detail and implementation of these spending plans is still to come.
• Rapid reform to planning is necessary. In a range of areas, the deployment of essential upgrades to the electricity grid and other Net Zero infrastructure is being stymied by restrictive planning rules. The planning system should have an overarching requirement to ensure planning decisions give full regard to Net Zero.
• Changing use of land takes time. Essential reforms have progressed, through the new Environmental Land Management policy, but Defra must step up rates of tree planting and peatland restoration and introduce a new framework for land use change.
• The Government does not expect to make a strategic decision on the role of hydrogen in heating until 2026. It must overcome this uncertainty by accelerating deployment of electric heating and pressing ahead with low-regret energy infrastructure decisions.
• The list of UK airports proposing to expand capacity continues to grow, counter to the Committee’s advice that there should be no net airport expansion across the UK. A UK-wide capacity management framework is needed to manage these decisions. No airport expansions should proceed until this is in place.

Environmental Audit Committee Chairman, Rt Hon Philip Dunne MP, said: “The CCC’s latest report makes for concerning reading and should serve as a wake-up call to Ministers. While the Government has indicated the ‘what’ it intends to deliver, there remain gaps in the ‘how’ to achieve through policy levers, leaving stakeholders at a loss to judge whether the UK is properly on track to meet its net zero commitments. This risks not creating sufficient confidence for investors looking to support the net zero transition in the UK: the current demand signals to investors lack clarity and consistency.

“Snappy, soundbite intent of ‘installing 600,000 heat pumps annually’, or ‘planting 30,000 hectares of trees a year’ sound impressive, but the detail on delivery and progress remains lacking. The CCC has pointed out these initiatives, which the Committee has also examined, are far from being on track to meet the net zero targets set for this decade let alone for the next decades on the path to net zero by 2050.

“Quick wins ranging from allowing more onshore wind and solar, reviewing planning rules around grid development, insulating homes and clear policy to create the green jobs of the future are just a few initiatives that can deliver real, tangible benefits. Our Committee has been advocating these measures throughout this Parliament, backed up by clear and consistent evidence from a range of experts.

“The CCC has indicated clearly what policy initiatives are required to get Ministers to where they need to be to achieve Net Zero Britain. Unless ambitious policy direction is given now, the Government risks the unravelling of the last few years of climate leadership, which was spurred on by the UK’s hosting of COP26 in Glasgow and its landmark agreements.

“Polling has consistently shown that climate change is one of the biggest concerns facing adults in Britain: the Government must listen and grasp the significant challenge ahead.

“The Committee looks forward to discussing this important report with the Climate Change Committee before the summer recess.”