Government’s own environmental watchdog raises concerns about policy u-turns

The Climate Change Committee has updated its report on the Government’s progress to Net Zero following recent policy announcements.

The CCC, the independent watchdog set up to oversee Government environment policy, says it remains concerned about the likelihood of achieving the UK’s future targets.

Tangible policy progress has been made since June, it states, with an increase in the percentage of the required emissions reductions covered by credible plans. It adds that Government must look to increase this further and improve consumer confidence in clean technologies.

Taking all recent developments into account, our assessment remains that the UK is unlikely to meet its NDC to reduce emissions by 68% by 2030, a commitment which was restated by the Prime Minister in his speech.

Also, the announcements increase the longer-term risk to meeting the 2050 Net Zero target due to the changed policies on buildings decarbonisation. They will additionally lead to higher household energy bills for those in the private-rented sector.

The CCC “strongly welcomes” the Prime Minister’s desire for further scrutiny of carbon budgets – and the policies required to meet them – before they are legislated.

Professor Piers Forster, Chair of the Climate Change Committee, said: “In June, the Climate Change Committee expressed concerns to Parliament about the pace of change required to meet the UK’s climate goals over the 2030s. Since then, there have been important climate announcements from Government, including the Prime Minister’s speech on 20 September. As promised, we have run the numbers.

“We welcome tangible positive policy progress in some key areas, most notably with the implementation of the new Zero Emission Vehicles mandate and the recent deal with Tata Steel for industrial electrification in Port Talbot. But the Prime Minister has also relaxed important policies to decarbonise buildings and transport and sent a message to business and the international audience that he will allow more time for the UK to transition to key clean technologies. These steps have countered the positive progress of other announcements.

“We remain concerned about the likelihood of achieving the UK’s future targets, especially the substantial policy gap to the UK’s 2030 goal. Around a fifth of the required emissions reductions to 2030 are covered by plans that we assess as insufficient. Recent policy announcements were not accompanied by estimates of their effect on future emissions, nor evidence to back the Government’s assurance that the UK’s targets will still be met. We urge the Government to adopt greater transparency in updating its analysis at the time of major announcements.

“Our position as a global leader on climate has come under renewed scrutiny following the Prime Minister’s speech. We urge the Government to restate strong British leadership on climate change in the crucial period before the next climate summit, COP28 in Dubai.”

The CCC said the recent announcements, most notably the Prime Minister’s speech on Net Zero, were not accompanied by corresponding estimates of their effect on emissions, nor with evidence to back the Government’s assurance that the UK’s targets will still be met. It described this as “unhelpful”l – and the Committee urges the Government to adopt greater transparency in updating its assessment of policy impacts at the time of major announcements.

Based on the information available, the CCC has made an independent assessment of how these developments will affect plans to meet the targets. But it said it did not have enough information to assess the full effects of some of the proposed policy measures.