A new report analysing over 5,000 mega and giga-projects and programmes from countries around the globe has revealed for the first time that 11% are at risk of significant delay or cancellation.
Moreover, despite the backdrop of record levels of investment, the ability to deliver on time, on budget and with the promised economic and societal benefits remains exceptional.
The global analysis, conducted by delivery consultants and construction experts, Mace, titled The Future of Major Programme Delivery estimates these inefficiencies will mean the global economy is at risk of missing out on more than $1.5tn of economic growth by 2030 due to delayed megaproject delivery.
As part of this, the report looks at different approaches to delivery and suggests actionable solutions centring around more collaborative models, including being more outcomes focused, having a ‘one team’ approach and sharing risk and reward.
It also suggests taking more time up-front to ensure readiness, defining and agreeing good governance, having a clear scope definition and cost realism.
The commissioning of major programmes, whether for energy, high-speed rail, hospitals or homes, schools or flood defences, as the climate changes and as urbanisation continues, has resulted in the number increasing by 280% since 2010, a trend set to continue.
Dominated by the USA, with 1,663 projects announced since 2010, and driven by countries such as India (729), Saudi Arabia (577) and the UK (484), data from the report shows programmes are becoming larger, more complex and more expensive. Driven in part by political support and public investment, the top 10 live global projects looked at have a combined total value of US $685 billion.
The report highlights that as projects grow in size and scope so does the risk of delay. With longer timeframes, there is a higher chance of encountering significant external events such as a price shock, war or political upheaval.
This is notwithstanding new digital tools, including AI systems that integrate cost and time overlays, and automation of processes designed to help boost productivity and enhance human capability.
The paper is clear that the challenges faced in delivery are not a reflection of a lack of capability within the supply chain, but issues such high levels of bureaucracy, protracted consents processes and changes in scope and funding that industry must overcome. This is compounded by optimism bias, incomplete designs and pressure to ‘get spades in the ground’ without proper planning.
The focus on tackling these challenges and the subsequent impact on cost and schedule continues to detract from the beneficial outcomes of these programmes.
Davendra Dabasia, Chief Executive Officer for Mace Consult, says: “When large-scale programmes are significantly delayed and go over budget, the focus on the positive impact they have is diluted. When major programmes exist to deliver beneficial outcomes for society, it’s a factor that needs to be addressed.
“Many of the issues are systemic, often driven by national politics and policies, and reflect the challenging ecosystem that delivery takes place in. As major projects and programmes become larger and more complex, delivery models need to be agile to tackle challenges and capitalise on any new opportunities.
“The solution must rest with more collaborative delivery approaches that prioritise the creation of integrated teams aligned to common goals that seek the same positive outcomes.”
The report highlights that collaborative approaches result in a 4%-13% reduction in cost and a 50% reduction in the risk of projects being delivered late.
With more than 11,000 live mega-programmes and 250 giga-programmes and projects currently in delivery around the globe, and the number growing, proponents of the report hope the focus on these will rest with the value they bring rather than on how they are delivered.
