Falling pupil numbers and wide variations in school capacity mean the education impact of new housing needs to be assessed at a local level, according to planning and development consultancy Lichfields.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies forecasts that the number of children aged under 16 will fall by around 800,000 across the UK between 2025 and 2035, including a 6% decline in England, 8% in Scotland, 10% in Wales and 15% in Northern Ireland.
But the picture varies significantly between individual areas. In England, there were around 1.2 million unfilled school places in 2024/25, equivalent to 13% of capacity, while 14% of primary schools and 19% of secondary schools were at or above capacity.
This means the impact of housing growth can’t be understood by looking at the number of homes proposed alone. Existing and projected school capacity, demographic change and other planned development all need to be considered which is why the consultancy has developed Schoolroom which is designed to assess the impact of housing development on school capacity and demand.
Rachel Affleck, a Senior Planner at Lichfields, said: “The relationship between new housing and school capacity is not straightforward. Some areas are seeing falling pupil numbers and increasing spare capacity, while others continue to face pressure on places.
“A school that is close to capacity today may see its pupil numbers fall in future, while an area with capacity now could face more pressure as new housing is delivered and the local population changes.
“That’s why it’s important to look at what is happening locally and how that picture is likely to change over time. By bringing those factors together, developers and local authorities can get a much better understanding of where additional education infrastructure may be needed and where existing schools can accommodate growth.”
Education Assessments can support Local Plan evidence, site promotion and planning applications by establishing the likely pupil generation from a development and considering this alongside existing and projected school capacity.
They can also inform discussions around education infrastructure and developer contributions by providing evidence of the likely impact of an individual development.
Nicola Woodward, a Senior Director at Lichfields, added: “Looking at education provision early gives developers and local authorities the opportunity to identify potential issues and consider what response is appropriate.
“In some areas, new housing will create additional demand for school places. In others, it could help support existing schools where pupil numbers are falling. The important thing is having the evidence to understand what is needed in that location.”
Lichfields prepares Education Assessments for housing developments across the UK, supporting site promotions, Local Plan evidence, planning applications and developer contribution negotiations. Its approach combines population analysis, housing growth, school capacity data and local policy to reflect the circumstances of individual areas.
For more information about Lichfields’ Education Assessment work, visit: https://lichfields.uk/content/products/schoolroom
